Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of The Black Swan, seems to be an absolute intellectual powerhouse. His pair of books, The Black Swan and Antifragile, changed my thinking in ways that I could never have imagined (as most changes in thought probably are). The additional filter provides an appreciable amount of clarity when combined with the existing lens through which I view the world. I’ve studied this book very closely, as I was especially intrigued by the absolute destruction of contemporary statistical methods in relation to any meaningful real-world application.
The premise of the pair of books, as far as I can tell, is something along the lines of: The averages don’t really matter when the unexpected outliers have basically all of the massive impact. There are positive and negative massive impacts, and there is a way to position yourself to disproportionally expose yourself to the positive swans while limiting exposure to the negative swans. And that way is structure things to be and betting on things that are “antifragile” (things that gain from disorder).
Most, if not all, concepts in these books are very rationally presented. The anecdotes are amusing, the writing is a bit long, but you will know them by their fruits. Judging by his repeated massive success in areas very few are successful in, Taleb seems to be onto something. As I was speaking with a co-worker the other day, it occurred to me that Taleb’s ideas not only don’t seem to be at conflict with, but are also not all that different on a fundamental level from the structure of reality as described in the Bible.
The idea that “You can structure your life in such a way that, as long as you’re aiming for the highest possible good for yourself and others, everything you need will provided for you.” doesn’t seem far off from the idea that “you can limit your exposure to negative Black Swans while also expanding your exposure to positive Black Swans.” Combine that idea with the idea that you can be “antifragile,” not only being robust to, but growing under stressors to your system. This seems to tie into something that is very dear to my heart, the idea of “loving the struggle,” which I mean in the truest sense.
The following is my preliminary attempt to connect these dots using words:
There’s a very powerful idea in the Book of Genesis: the idea that we are made in God’s image. In the beginning, God speaks order from chaos… or as Dr. Peterson says “formless voids can be viewed as limitless potential, and through speaking the word or truth that limitless potential is transformed into order” (paraphrasing). If you hold the view that chaos is limitless potential, how you handle chaos will determine to what degree you are antifragile. The innate ability of man to thrive in adverse conditions seems to be the greatest form of antifragility that I can find. Connecting that ability to some piece of the divine inside of us aids the robust structure that allows us to thrive when exposed to stressors. This seems to be closely tied to theories of our hemispherical brain structure being related to order and chaos, and the idea that we are at our best when we stay true to that narrow path between the two.
The next bit of dots, that I connect in my mind, involves the sermon on the mount and guiding your exposure to Black Swans. The sermon describes some structure of reality, or in simpler terms “behave in this manner and this will be the result.” From a phenomenological perspective, that structure acts as a surprisingly accurate predictive framework in life. (This is probably why it’s commonly referred to as the greatest sermon ever given.) We all seem to find this true on some level, but few have good explanations for why. It seems to me that Taleb’s books and thorough descriptions of the driving mechanisms behind his concepts, to some degree, explain why the sermon is such an accurate predictive framework. I hope to develop these ideas further in the future.
As with most bits of literature, there seems to be a part where the Author and I part ways. The conclusions drawn near the close of the Black Swan is still a parting, but the book is not so far off from what I imagine to be the wisest path.
“You can stand above society and the pecking order by choice. By creating your own idea of success.” – From some where near the end of The Black Swan
Now, we can surely create our own idea of success. I, however, am not a fan of spinning my wheels if I don’t have to. I prefer the advice “stand on the shoulders of giants.” Many ancient texts, the bible seeming the greatest of these, define success in way better than I could have imagined. The sermon does a grand job of that. If your idea of success aligns with the god of the universe’s idea of success, then you’re probably on the best past possible, even beyond imagination. That’s something to consider no matter who you are.
“Quitting a high-paying position, if it is your decision, will seem a better payoff than the utility of the money involved (this may seem crazy, but I’ve tried it and it works). This is the first step toward the stoic’s throwing a four-letter word at fate. You have far more control over your life if you decide on your criterion by yourself.” – From some where near the end of The Black Swan
Well maybe Taleb, that very well may be. Do decide (advice to myself) on your criterion, but do not discount the wisdom of the ancients.